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ContainerSignal Daily: Carriers blank sailings ahead of FAK hikes

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 11 min read

Spot rates rose on all three of the main east-west trades in the week to 22 October, and carriers are moving to protect the gains. Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight recorded eight blank sailings announced for next week against two this week, The Loadstar reported, while MSC and CMA CGM have set out freight-all-kinds levels for 1 November that sit above current spot on those lanes. The test comes as the transpacific peak winds down and Linerlytica warns that the November pricing is unlikely to hold.

Today’s Signals

Freight Rates

The rate rise is broad but uneven. Drewry’s World Container Index for the week to 22 October put Shanghai to Rotterdam up 3% week on week at US$3,632 per 40ft, Shanghai to Genoa up 5% at US$4,152, Shanghai to Los Angeles up 2% at US$8,007 and Shanghai to New York up 1% at US$10,166, according to The Loadstar’s reading of the index. Rotterdam to New York rose 3% to US$3,181 per 40ft and is 85% higher than a year ago. Each lane is a separate assessment: the WCI measures specific port pairs, so these figures should not be read as one global price, a distinction set out in how container freight rate indexes differ.

Xeneta’s market averages show the same divergence from a different sample. In its weekly update for 23 October, Xeneta put the market average Far East to North Europe at US$3,698 per FEU, up 6.8% week on week, and Far East to the Mediterranean at US$4,442 per FEU, up 5.8%, while Far East to the US West Coast was US$8,311 and Far East to the US East Coast US$11,525, both up 0.2%. Against the pre-Hormuz baseline of 28 February, the US lanes remain 342% and 335% higher respectively, against 67% and 33% for the European lanes. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand attributed the European strength to demand: volumes from the Far East to Europe rose 12.2% in the first seven months of the year, even as Red Sea capacity returned. That split between a European market still climbing and a transpacific that has peaked was the pattern in last week’s market update.

Carriers have set November FAK levels. MSC will apply US$4,500 per 40ft on Asia to North Europe, US$5,000 on Asia to west Mediterranean and US$5,100 on Asia to east Mediterranean from 1 November, while CMA CGM is aiming for US$4,900 and US$5,200 on the two Mediterranean legs, The Loadstar reported. Linerlytica’s caveat is worth keeping: it said actual spot rates remain weak, with carrier rates below the SCFI assessment, and it expects the November increases to fail. In MSC’s case the North Europe level matches the mid-October FAK and the Mediterranean legs are US$500 per 40ft higher, so the increase is smaller than the headline suggests.

Blank sailings are the instrument. The jump from two to eight blanked voyages for next week, a withdrawal of capacity that how blank sailings work explains, is what stands between the published FAK levels and the discounted offers European forwarders reported receiving through the first half of October. On the transpacific the direction is the reverse: two blank sailings are scheduled for next week against six this week, which Drewry read as more effective capacity, and the consultancy said it expects transpacific rates to remain stable. US west coast forwarder Freight Right described the market as stabilising, with the peak season wrapping up and volume in a natural seasonal decline, and put a spot rate of around US$8,000 per 40ft as common on Asia to US East Coast, below the WCI’s Shanghai to New York assessment for the same week, with ONE offering below general market levels on space that is booked through October.

Carrier Updates

MSC adds an emergency operations surcharge in the Mediterranean and revises a rotation. From 1 November, on bill of lading date and until further notice, MSC will charge US$200, €200 or £200 per container, depending on the trade and payment currency, on cargo from Greece, Türkiye, the Black Sea and non-Italian Adriatic ports to northwest continental Europe, the United Kingdom and the ScanBaltic region, Container News reported. The carrier said the charge reflects additional costs in the current market and operational environment and supports its direct service to northern Europe. Alongside it, MSC is revising the rotation of its main northern Europe to Greece and Türkiye service, which it said aims to improve schedule reliability and cut turnaround times. MSC’s own announcement was not reachable from this host, so the terms rest on the Container News report.

Maersk revises its peak season surcharge from the Indian Subcontinent and Middle East. The revised PSS applies from 23 October 2026 to cargo to the US and Canadian West Coast, East Coast, Gulf Coast and Canadian East Coast, Container News reported. On the west coast the charge is US$3,400 per container across 20-foot and 40-foot dry, high cube and reefer equipment. The origin scope runs from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives and Bhutan through the Gulf states to Iraq, Jordan and Yemen. Surcharges stack on top of the base ocean rate, so the all-in cost on these lanes is now well above the published FAK or contract level.

Maersk ends Walvis Bay exports to Europe and North America. Week 42 marks the end of cargo acceptance from Walvis Bay to Europe and North America, with the 642N voyage of Helene the final W13 sailing carrying that coverage, Container News reported. The W13 service continues but will focus on Middle Eastern and intra-African markets, and imports into Walvis Bay from Europe and North America will move through the FW6 service via the Far East. Maersk linked the change to a review of service structure, vessel deployment and available network capacity, and said it is assessing alternative routings for affected exporters.

Fleet & Capacity

Hengli books 52 ultra-large dual-fuel ships. The Dalian yard announced orders for 20 ships of 24,000 TEU, 20 of 19,000 TEU and 12 of 22,000 TEU, all dual-fuel, The Loadstar reported. The 24,000 TEU block is believed to be MSC’s, reported at 10 new LNG dual-fuelled vessels plus an upgrade of 10 existing 22,000 TEU orders, at close to US$2.5bn, which would take MSC to 30 LNG dual-fuelled 24,000 TEU ships at Hengli. Maersk has invited South Korean and Chinese yards to quote on a dozen 24,000 TEU ships, up to 24 LNG dual-fuelled 19,000 TEU vessels and six of 18,600 TEU, and shipbrokers said CMA CGM has chosen Yangzijiang for a dozen LNG dual-fuelled 24,000 TEU ships, which the French line has not confirmed. Only the Hengli order is a yard announcement; the carrier attributions are reports.

The dual-fuel fleet passes 500 ships. The World Shipping Council’s dashboard counted 503 dual-fuel container ships and vehicle carriers in service in September 2026, up 41% from 358 a year earlier, with a further 849 on order for 1,352 delivered or building and more than US$200bn committed, Safety4Sea reported. By deadweight, dual-fuel designs account for 65% of container ship orders and 97% of vehicle carrier orders. The council’s point is that capability is not the same as abatement: emissions depend on whether commercially priced alternative fuels are available where the ships trade, and it wants an IMO greenhouse gas measure to close the price gap.

Ports

Halifax port employers and the ILA reach a tentative three-year pact. The deal was announced on Friday, a week after Montreal employers and the port workers union agreed a five-year contract following a year of arbitration, JOC reported. The JOC report sits behind a paywall, so the ratification timetable and the wage terms could not be read from the publisher’s own text. A tentative agreement is not a ratified one: Halifax is a container gateway for eastern Canada, and a signed contract would remove one source of schedule risk from services calling there.

New York and New Jersey drayage carriers want an FMC rule on empty returns. A stakeholder group of drayage operators has asked the Federal Maritime Commission for enforceable standards on empty container handling, arguing that ocean carriers should carry more of the burden for managing their own equipment, JOC reported. This lands on the boundary between demurrage and detention that the difference between demurrage and detention sets out: who holds the box, and for how long, decides which charge applies and who pays it.

What It Means

The November FAK increases are a bet that capacity discipline can outrun demand. The evidence points both ways. European fronthaul demand has been strong enough to absorb returning Red Sea capacity and still lift rates, which is why MSC and CMA CGM can publish higher Mediterranean levels. But the transpacific has turned, with US import volumes past their peak, space easing and carriers discounting to hold share, and Linerlytica expects the increases to fail rather than stick.

For shippers the practical risk is in the all-in number, not the FAK. A US-bound box from India or the Gulf now carries a US$3,400 per container PSS on top of the base rate, and Mediterranean to northern Europe cargo faces a new per-container emergency surcharge from 1 November. Comparing quotes on the FAK alone will understate the change in cost, and booking either side of a 1 November bill of lading date changes the price.

The supply side is being rebuilt for a later market. Hengli’s 52-ship announcement and the dual-fuel orderbook point to deliveries concentrated from 2028 onwards, well beyond the horizon on which blanking sailings can support rates. The near-term lever remains withdrawal of capacity, and eight blanked voyages next week against two this week is a modest one.

Trade flows are also still moving underneath the rates. Sea-Intelligence data cited by Safety4Sea has Chinese exports shipped directly to the United States down 22% over 12 months and US exports to China down 25%, with 52% of affected Chinese output redirected to other Asian countries. That rerouting adds port calls and handling stages, which supports intra-Asia volumes while lengthening the chain that the transatlantic and transpacific rates ultimately price.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

The transpacific premium is mostly a capacity decision

Asia-US East Coast spot rates are more than three times Asia-North Europe. The gap reflects blanked capacity and Red Sea routing more than a demand boom.

Asia-Europe and transpacific rates rise as capacity sets records

Spot rates gained on both main headhauls in the week to 23 October, led by Asia-Europe, even as Sea-Intelligence recorded record deployed capacity.

Asia-Europe rates are riding a half-finished Suez return

Sixty-three percent of Far East to Europe capacity now uses Red Sea routings, but many loops still return via the Cape. That gap explains the rate rebound.

Related reading

ContainerSignal Daily: Carriers discount their November rate rises

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