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ContainerSignal Daily: Carriers discount their November rate rises

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 14 min read

Carriers entered the weekend with published rate increases due on 1 November on both east-west legs, and with the market already trading below several of them. Linerlytica found Gemini carriers offering the lowest Asia to North Europe spot rates for early November shipments, at US$3,000 to US$3,200 per 40ft container from Hapag-Lloyd and US$3,200 to US$3,400 from Maersk, with MSC, the Ocean Alliance and the Premier Alliance responding at US$3,400 to US$3,500, and concluded that “the 1 November rate hike is effectively doomed”.

The capacity backdrop makes the discounting easier to understand. Sea-Intelligence recorded unprecedented average weekly deployed capacity on the Asia to Europe and transpacific trades in October and November, inflated by vessels delayed out of the third quarter arriving in a heap rather than by a surge in demand. The result is a market where carriers are announcing increases for 1 November and again for 15 November while undercutting each other on the spot market.

Today’s Signals

Freight Rates

The transpacific led the Drewry composite down, and Asia to Europe held. The World Container Index stood at US$4,429 per 40ft container in Drewry’s assessment for Thursday 29 October, 3% lower week on week. Shanghai to Los Angeles fell 6% to US$7,514 per 40ft container and Shanghai to New York fell 5% to US$9,631, which the Loadstar described as the steepest one-week fall on the transpacific eastbound trade since June 2025. Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 1% to US$3,686 per 40ft container and Shanghai to Genoa was unchanged at US$4,151, Drewry reported. How the WCI, the FBX and the SCFI differ is set out in the guide to container freight rate indexes.

Carriers are undermining their own increases in Asia to Europe. Linerlytica’s assessment, reported by the Loadstar on 30 October, put early November Asia to North Europe offers at US$3,000 to US$3,500 per 40ft across the main carrier groups, well below the levels carriers published. MSC’s freight-all-kinds level for 1 November is US$4,500 per 40ft to North Europe, US$5,000 to the west Mediterranean and US$5,100 to the east Mediterranean, while CMA CGM is targeting US$4,900 and US$5,200 per 40ft to the west and east Mediterranean respectively. Both carriers then announced a second round for 15 November: MSC at US$4,600 per 40ft to North Europe and US$5,300 to the west Mediterranean, CMA CGM at US$5,500 to the west Mediterranean.

On the transpacific the increase looks equally exposed. The 1 November general rate increase ranges from US$2,000 to US$3,000 per 40ft depending on carrier, and US forwarders told the Loadstar that pricing carried over from the previous week, with space easier and schedules more consistent. Freight Right expected China to US ocean rates to remain broadly stable through the first half of November with the possibility of modest declines. Drewry separately forecast further transpacific declines next week and a stable Asia to Europe, after the US National Retail Federation projected an 11% month on month fall in US ocean import volumes in November.

Fleet & Capacity

Record deployed capacity is a scheduling artefact as much as a demand signal. Sea-Intelligence put average weekly capacity on Asia to North Europe above 350,000 TEU in October and November 2026, and Asia to the Mediterranean above 260,000 TEU, both breaking historical records and departing from the normal post-Golden Week pattern. Asia to the US West Coast reached nearly 393,000 TEU per week in October and is expected to approach 400,000 TEU in November, while Asia to the US East Coast hit record levels in both months, WorldCargo News reported.

The consultancy attributed the surge primarily to vessel bunching caused by port congestion and poor schedule reliability in Asia. “Vessels originally scheduled to depart during Q3 were heavily delayed, cascading into the October and November, and ultimately artificially inflating deployed capacity,” said Sea-Intelligence chief executive Alan Murphy. That mechanism, and why it leaves shippers unable to plan even when capacity looks plentiful, is explained in the guide to schedule reliability.

MSC’s orderbook keeps growing, according to market reports. iMarine reported that MSC has ordered three more 21,000 TEU ships at Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding for delivery between July 2028 and the end of 2029, citing market sources rather than a carrier announcement, with the order value undisclosed and a market price of about US$225 million per ship implied by the report. The same report said MSC had ordered 20 ships of 24,000 TEU at Hengli Heavy Industries for close to US$5 billion, for delivery in 2029 and 2030, and put its operating fleet at about 7.47 million TEU at the end of October with roughly 3.379 million TEU on order, citing Alphaliner. MSC has not confirmed the Waigaoqiao order publicly.

This week’s deliveries went to Latin America. Alphaliner data reported by the Loadstar showed Imabari delivering the 13,932 TEU ONE Symphony for ONE’s Asia to West Coast South America AX3 service, run jointly with MSC and Hapag-Lloyd; MSC taking the 10,300 TEU MSC Licia X for its Carioca loop between the Far East and the east coast of South America; the 8,454 TEU CMA CGM Austral, delivered by New Times to Eastern Pacific Shipping and chartered to CMA CGM for its Far East to Mexico M2X service; and the 7,900 TEU Garnet for long-term charter to Zim, the Loadstar reported.

Ports

Congestion in the United Arab Emirates is now measured in weeks of transfer time. As of 30 October, Kuehne+Nagel put average vessel waiting time at Khor Fakkan at 7.25 days, with vessels arriving an average of 7.4 days behind schedule over the previous 30 days, and average waiting time at Fujairah at 8.86 days over the previous seven, with arrivals 7.58 days late. Sharjah vessels were waiting about three days for a berth, with average arrival and departure delays above four days over 30 days. Terminal transfers from Khor Fakkan and Fujairah to Jebel Ali, Sharjah and Abu Dhabi that previously took about five days now take 12 to 15 days, the forwarder reported.

Kuehne+Nagel said some carriers are reducing allocations for Khor Fakkan, Fujairah and Sharjah, but that there are no widespread direct port omissions or alternative gateways being pushed, and it recommended diversifying carrier and gateway usage, including Salalah and Duqm, and allowing additional lead time. Restrictions remain on discharge of foreign cargo, dangerous goods and special equipment, and the forwarder expects the situation to worsen as Middle East demand stays strong and precautionary inventory building continues.

The Los Angeles and Long Beach strike deadline has formally moved. The Pacific Maritime Association said the deadline is now 4 November, with talks between employers and ILWU Local 26 continuing with assistance from the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service, the Journal of Commerce reported. No strike has been confirmed. The exposure created by the roughly 250 watchmen, whose terminals handle about 85% of Long Beach cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo, was set out in yesterday’s briefing.

Regulation & Policy

India has approved a scheme to build a domestic container industry. The Union Cabinet on 28 October approved a 10,000 crore rupee programme to raise annual container manufacturing capacity from 70,000 TEU to 750,000 TEU by the 2039/40 financial year, Mint reported. The outlay comprises 8,891 crore rupees of operating cost support, 859 crore rupees of interest subsidy and 150 crore rupees for testing and certification. India currently produces about 0.5% of the world’s shipping containers, with China dominating the market, according to Mint. The Journal of Commerce characterised the package as a US$1 billion plan.

Carrier Updates

COSCO Shipping Ports grew overseas volumes faster than its home ports. Third-quarter revenue rose 13% year on year to US$484.3 million and total throughput rose 8.4% to 42.27 million TEU, with overseas terminals handling 11.32 million TEU, up 19.4%, Container News reported. Piraeus handled 1.09 million TEU, up 11.4%, CSP Chancay 139,669 TEU, up 24.9%, Suez Canal Container Terminal 1.66 million TEU, up 8.4%, and Antwerp Gateway 684,232 TEU, up 16.3%. CSP Abu Dhabi fell 76.4% to 97,734 TEU, a decline the report did not explain. Profit attributable to shareholders was broadly flat at US$82.6 million.

Quick Bites

  • CMA CGM started a Mombasa to Nairobi block train on 28 October. The service uses 54 wagons with a capacity of 108 TEU and initially runs once a week, developed with the Kenya Ports Authority and Kenya Railways Corporation, WorldCargo News reported. A return service to Mombasa is under consideration.
  • APM Terminals signed a concession for Tanger Med 3. The agreement with Morocco’s Tanger Med port authority covers development and operation of a new container terminal, part of a push to lift the complex’s annual capacity to 20 million TEU, WorldCargo News reported. The report put the investment at US$812 million.
  • Sidra Line opened a Türkiye to St Petersburg service. The TRX loop calls Izmit (Safiport), Istanbul (Ambarli), Mersin and St Petersburg on a five-weekly rotation, Container News reported.
  • CargoWise users lost customs messaging for most of a working day. WiseTech acknowledged an issue at 10.37am on 28 October, said British and Japanese customs messaging were particularly affected, and reported the backlog cleared the following morning, a span of almost 22 hours, the Loadstar reported. The number of users affected and the root cause remain unclear.

What It Means

The 1 November increases should be treated as opening positions, not prices. With Gemini carriers quoting US$3,000 to US$3,400 per 40ft into North Europe and rivals at US$3,400 to US$3,500, the published FAK levels of US$4,500 and above describe a market that does not exist this week. The 15 November announcements were published before the 1 November ones had been tested, which is what carriers do during contract tendering season: the spot number sets the anchor for annual negotiations even when the spot market does not deliver it. Shippers with November volume to place have room to negotiate, and shippers pricing 2027 contracts should expect carriers to argue from the published levels rather than the transacted ones.

Capacity is the reason. Sea-Intelligence’s records are partly an artefact of ships arriving late, which means the same tonnage that inflates October and November statistics will not necessarily be available at the same pace in December. The lever remains blank sailings, and Asia to Europe had four posted for next week against eight this week, while the transpacific had six against five, per Drewry. Carriers that want the 15 November levels to stick will have to withdraw more capacity than they have announced, which is the mechanism described in the guide to blank sailings.

The port side is where the next rate story sits. UAE congestion is producing 12 to 15 day transfers and no formal omissions yet, which pushes cost into landside legs rather than into ocean rates, and the Gulf is also the region where the Hormuz disruption continues to shape routing. The India container manufacturing scheme is a multi-year industrial policy story, not a 2027 rate driver, but it is the first serious attempt to reduce a supply chain dependency that became visible in 2021 and has not gone away. The rate and capacity picture across the two main lanes is set out in this week’s market update.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

Asia-Europe and transpacific rates rise as capacity sets records

Spot rates gained on both main headhauls in the week to 23 October, led by Asia-Europe, even as Sea-Intelligence recorded record deployed capacity.

Rate rebound lifts composites, but Asia-Europe indexes split

Drewry's WCI rose 3% to US$4,485 per 40ft for the week to 15 October, but Asia-Europe lane indexes moved in opposite directions in the same week.

The transpacific premium is mostly a capacity decision

Asia-US East Coast spot rates are more than three times Asia-North Europe. The gap reflects blanked capacity and Red Sea routing more than a demand boom.

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