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ContainerSignal Daily: LA-Long Beach strike deadline set to slip

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 12 min read

The threatened strike by security watchmen at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is expected to be pushed back from Sunday 1 November to Wednesday 4 November, according to the Pacific Maritime Association, the employers’ group. The Journal of Commerce reported that the PMA and ILWU Local 26, which represents about 250 watchmen, are likely to announce the short contract extension on Friday. No strike has been confirmed, and the Loadstar reported that the Sunday walkout may instead come on Wednesday.

The dispute matters far beyond the size of the workforce. The eight container terminals that employ the affected watchmen handle roughly 85% of Long Beach cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo, the PMA has said, because other ILWU members will not cross a picket line. A four-day reprieve moves the risk into a week when the port complex is still clearing a heavy rail backlog.

Today’s Signals

Ports

The deadline moved, the exposure did not. The contract extension in place runs to 5pm Pacific Time on Sunday, and negotiations on a further extension or a new agreement were continuing, the Loadstar reported. The PMA figure of eight affected terminals covers the watchmen who screen truck gates and terminal perimeters, not the crane and yard workforce directly, but the practical constraint is the picket line: consultant Lars Jensen told the Loadstar that other ILWU members traditionally will not cross one, which would stop operations at the terminals concerned. The Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach both handled record Septembers, at about 1.04 million TEU and 997,177 TEU respectively, so any stoppage lands on a system already running at its ceiling. The mechanics of how a stoppage converts into missed vessel windows are set out in the guide to schedule reliability.

Inland rail is the second constraint at the same complex. The Vincent Thomas Bridge is scheduled to close from 7 November for approximately 16 months, the Loadstar reported, which would lengthen drayage journeys through the port complex just as truck and rail dwell are already elevated. The rail queue reported earlier this week, at 35,688 containers awaiting on-dock trains, is the buffer that a short labour stoppage would consume first.

London Gateway has lost its rail link for at least a week. Hapag-Lloyd said rail services to and from the UK port are suspended following a train derailment at Barking, with the disruption expected to continue for at least one week, Container News reported. The carrier asked merchant haulage and ramp customers to collect cargo by truck, said its inland team would contact carrier haulage customers about alternatives, and stopped accepting new carrier haulage requests for the duration. The advisory does not estimate how much cargo is affected.

Freight Rates

Drewry’s composite fell 3% after two weeks of gains. The World Container Index stood at US$4,429 per 40ft container in the assessment for Thursday 29 October, down 3% week on week, with the decline driven by the transpacific, Drewry reported. Shanghai to Los Angeles fell 6% to US$7,514 per 40ft container and Shanghai to New York fell 5% to US$9,631. Asia to Europe moved the other way: Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 1% to US$3,686 per 40ft container and Shanghai to Genoa was unchanged at US$4,151.

Capacity management is doing the work on both lanes. Drewry counted six blank sailings announced for the transpacific next week, up from five this week, and four on Asia to Europe, down from eight, which it reads as tighter capacity on the Pacific and more effective capacity into Europe. It also cited the US National Retail Federation’s forecast that US ocean import volumes will fall 11% month on month in November, and said it expects transpacific rates to decrease next week while Asia to Europe holds stable. That split is the same tension between deployed capacity and demand described in this week’s market update, and the lever carriers are pulling is explained in the guide to blank sailings.

Suez transits hit a 2026 high while Hormuz stays shut to most boxships. Drewry put Suez Canal transits at 62 vessels last week, the highest weekly level this year, against only two vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The Suez recovery adds effective capacity on Asia-Europe at the same time as carriers announce November FAK increases, a combination that makes the increases harder to hold, the pattern traced in the analysis of Asia-Europe’s half-finished Suez return.

Carrier Updates

COSCO Shipping Holdings posted its largest profit jump in two years. Third-quarter net income rose 81% to 17.2 billion yuan, about US$2.6 billion, with transpacific sailings the biggest growth driver, according to a filing reported by Bloomberg via gCaptain. The carrier attributed the result to geopolitical disruption rerouting trade and tying up vessels for longer while rates held near two-year highs for most of the quarter. The comparison base and the exact net income figure come from the filing as reported; the full results statement was not independently reviewed here.

Maersk is cutting a Middle East to West Africa contingency surcharge. The carrier will reduce its Emergency Contingency Surcharge for shipments from Jebel Ali, Fujairah and Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates, and Sohar in Oman, to West Africa, Container News reported. Maersk said the change remains subject to applicable regulatory approvals and notice periods and did not publish the new amount in the report. Shippers should read the advisory for the effective date and the per-container level before repricing.

Trade Routes

A container ship has now sunk after the Black Sea drone attack. The Liberian-flagged CONTSHIP JET, carrying 421 containers from Haifa in Israel to Constanta in Romania, sank after being hit by three sea drones on 28 October in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone but outside its territorial waters, Reuters reported via gCaptain. All 14 Filipino and four Ukrainian crew members were rescued and taken to Varna, according to Contships Management. This is the same casualty reported as a drone strike in Wednesday’s briefing, now confirmed as a total loss.

Attribution is still open, and the month’s toll is rising. At least six ships have been attacked by drones off Bulgaria this month, with about two dozen seafarers feared dead according to government statements, Reuters reported. Ambrey assessed the unmanned surface vehicle in crew footage as likely a variant of, or derived from, the Russian Murena-300S design, while Bulgaria’s prime minister said some attacks appeared to benefit Russia and a former Ukrainian naval officer said the drone did not resemble Ukrainian models. Initial inspections found no visible pollution, though the cargo included lithium-ion batteries, corrosive liquids and acids. For container shipping the effect is confined to the Black Sea feeder and Constanta trades, not to the main east-west lanes, but war risk premiums and insurance availability on those calls are the variables to watch.

Fleet & Capacity

Deployed capacity is not the same as capacity that arrives on time. Global schedule reliability was 50.6% in September, up 0.9 percentage points from August but still far below the May peak of 64.5%, with late vessels averaging 6.65 days behind schedule, according to Sea-Intelligence’s Global Liner Performance report as reported by SAFETY4SEA. Maersk was the most reliable of the 13 largest carriers at 64.8%, ahead of Hapag-Lloyd at 60.4%, MSC at 57.7% and CMA CGM at 51.8%, while Wan Hai was lowest at 26.7%. Among alliances, MSC led at 68.9% and Gemini at 68.4%, against Ocean Alliance at 44.8% and Premier at 41.5%.

That gap is why record nominal capacity on the Asia-Europe and transpacific lanes has not translated into reliable service. Vessels bunch when they fall behind, and bunched arrivals inflate the capacity counted in a given week while leaving shippers unable to plan a delivery date. It also explains why spot rates can fall on weak demand even while schedules remain poor.

Quick Bites

  • Wan Hai will launch a Vietnam, South China and West India loop in late November. The CI8 service will rotate Haiphong, Qinzhou, Nansha, Shekou, Port Klang Northport, Mundra, Nhava Sheva, Port Klang Northport and back to Haiphong, using 2,800 to 3,000 TEU vessels, Maritime Gateway reported. The carrier has announced the plan; sailings have not started, and transit times will depend on the published schedule.
  • Scan Global Logistics is buying OIA Global. The Danish forwarder agreed to acquire the Portland-based forwarder in what it called its largest investment to date, a deal it says will put it among the world’s 20 largest forwarders, the Loadstar reported. The price was not disclosed. OIA Global reported revenue of US$780 million in 2025 and employs about 1,200 staff across 60 offices, while Scan Global issued a EUR300 million bond on 22 October and its shareholders injected a further EUR111 million, according to the report.
  • Port labour action is also happening outside the ILWU dispute. An international dockworker day of action on 30 October involves more than 25 unions across 22 countries, with 24-hour strikes planned in France, Italy, India, Greece and Turkey, according to the BDS movement as reported by the Loadstar. The campaign is separate from the Los Angeles and Long Beach contract talks and is not a container-specific action, but it adds to the week’s port labour risk.

What It Means

The strike extension, if confirmed on Friday, buys four days and changes nothing structural. The watchmen’s dispute sits on top of a port complex running record volumes with elevated rail dwell and a bridge closure due on 7 November, so shippers with cargo at Los Angeles or Long Beach should treat the new deadline as a scheduling window rather than a resolution. Collect released import boxes before the deadline where possible, and for rail cargo allow more slack than the published transit time suggests.

On rates, the direction has turned again. A 3% fall in the Drewry composite driven by a 6% drop on Shanghai to Los Angeles, with Shanghai to Rotterdam still rising, is a lane-by-lane market, not a global one. Carriers are announcing November FAK increases into a month when the NRF expects US import volumes to fall 11% month on month, and with six transpacific blank sailings already posted for next week. Whether those increases hold will depend on how much capacity carriers are willing to withdraw, not on the announcements themselves.

The Black Sea sinking is a reminder that war risk is now a routing and insurance cost on the Constanta approach, separate from the Red Sea and Hormuz picture. Suez transits at a 2026 high of 62 vessels and Hormuz at two show how unevenly the network has normalised: one chokepoint is recovering, another is effectively closed to container traffic, and the cost of that split lands on specific lanes rather than on the market as a whole.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

Asia-Europe and transpacific rates rise as capacity sets records

Spot rates gained on both main headhauls in the week to 23 October, led by Asia-Europe, even as Sea-Intelligence recorded record deployed capacity.

Asia-Europe rates are riding a half-finished Suez return

Sixty-three percent of Far East to Europe capacity now uses Red Sea routings, but many loops still return via the Cape. That gap explains the rate rebound.

Rate rebound lifts composites, but Asia-Europe indexes split

Drewry's WCI rose 3% to US$4,485 per 40ft for the week to 15 October, but Asia-Europe lane indexes moved in opposite directions in the same week.

Related reading

ContainerSignal Daily: LA-Long Beach strike deadline looms

ILWU watchmen at eight Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals may strike on 1 November, while drones hit a container ship bound for Constanta.

ContainerSignal Daily: Asia-Europe double sailings top 2021 peak

Sea-Intelligence finds Asia-Europe double sailings above 2021 peaks as about 60% of capacity returns to Suez and the Drewry composite hits a 15-week high.

ContainerSignal Daily: Carriers discount their November rate rises

Linerlytica calls the 1 November Asia-Europe increases effectively doomed as carriers discount, while Sea-Intelligence records unprecedented East-West capacity.