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ContainerSignal Daily: Charter rates hit a four-year high

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 14 min read

Spot rates and charter rates moved higher together this week, a combination that usually signals a network short of tonnage rather than one short of cargo. Drewry’s World Container Index rose 2% to US$4,585 per 40ft container in its assessment for Thursday 22 October, the second consecutive weekly increase and the highest level in 15 weeks, the index publisher reported. Separately, Braemar’s containership charter index stood at 325.8, up 21% year on year and the highest since autumn 2022, The Loadstar reported, even as the orderbook points to a delivery wave in 2028.

The offsetting force is routing. Alphaliner put 63% of Far East to Europe capacity back on services using the Red Sea in the month to 15 October, a shift that releases effective capacity as voyage lengths shorten. Those two forces, tight prompt tonnage today and returning Suez transits tomorrow, set the terms for 2027 contract negotiations.

Today’s Signals

Freight Rates

Asia-Europe led the gain. Drewry’s assessment for 22 October put Shanghai to Rotterdam at US$3,632 per 40ft, up 3%, and Shanghai to Genoa at US$4,152, up 5%. The transpacific moved less: Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 2% to US$8,007 per 40ft and Shanghai to New York 1% to US$10,166. Drewry linked the Asia-Europe increase to capacity management rather than demand, noting that eight blank sailings have been announced for next week against two this week on that route, while the transpacific has two announced for next week against six this week. That is the mechanism described in what a blank sailing does to capacity: the same nominal fleet produces a different amount of available slot capacity depending on how many advertised voyages are withdrawn.

Two operational details in the same assessment are worth separating from the rate story. Vessel waiting times at Shanghai fell from 97 hours in week 38 to 38 hours in week 42, which points to congestion easing rather than building on the export side. And only two containerships sailed into the Gulf in week 42, down from five the previous week, with Suez Canal transits edging up from 54 in week 41 to 55 in week 42.

The demand side is not providing the same support. Sea-Intelligence, reviewing the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, said global trade volume growth is projected to moderate from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2027, with import demand in advanced economies slowing from 5.0% growth in 2026 to 4.2% in 2027, SAFETY4SEA reported. The consultancy argued that pace will not absorb all the new capacity entering service. It also traced the tariff rerouting: Chinese exports shipped directly to the United States fell 22% over a 12 month period and US exports to China fell 25%, with 52% of Chinese production redirected to other Asian countries. Its note that AI-related trade is setting records in value while barely moving in physical weight is a reminder that the fastest growing part of trade is not necessarily container cargo.

Carrier Updates

Firefighting continues on Espirito Santo Express, a week after the crew abandoned ship. The fire broke out on 15 October while the vessel was sailing from Singapore to Santos, Brazil, in the South Atlantic, reportedly fully laden, SAFETY4SEA reported. All 28 seafarers were recovered by the Portuguese-flagged bulk carrier Aeolian Arrow, which Rio de Janeiro’s maritime rescue coordination centre appointed as on-scene coordinator: 19 from a lifeboat and nine from a liferaft. During recovery of the bulk carrier’s own rescue boat, its chief officer fell overboard and was lost. Portugal’s Maritime Accident Investigation Office (GAMA) has opened a safety investigation and classified the event as a very serious maritime casualty.

In an update reported on 23 October, Hapag-Lloyd said that firefighting operations remain underway, that owner Seaspan has confirmed all crew are safe and accounted for, and that it cannot yet confirm the condition of individual shipments or containers, Container News reported. The carrier said customers do not need to take action unless contacted directly. The vessel is deployed on ONE’s East Coast South America Express 1 (SX1) service, ONE confirmed, and an APL Logistics advisory said it was carrying cargo from other carriers including ONE and MSC, Ship and Bunker reported. No cause has been established and no figure for cargo loss has been published.

Ports

HHLA cuts 2026 guidance on Hamburg throughput. The terminal operator now expects group operating profit of EUR 115 million to EUR 135 million for 2026, down from EUR 150 million to EUR 170 million, and port logistics segment profit of EUR 100 million to EUR 120 million against EUR 135 million to EUR 155 million previously, WELT reported from the company’s statement. March guidance for the group had been EUR 175 million to EUR 195 million. HHLA attributed the revision to strike related losses and the ramp-up of further automation at its Hamburg container terminals, and now expects a significant decline in container throughput where it had previously guided for a slight one. Revenue and container transport expectations are unchanged. A roughly EUR 12 million non-cash impairment in the logistics segment follows a portfolio review. The company is now 50.1% owned by the City of Hamburg and 49.9% by MSC, having been delisted after a squeeze-out this summer. Port Strategy carried the same guidance cut and reasons.

Durban stays congested, and carriers are rewriting rotations around it. Kuehne+Nagel’s customer advisory reports berth delays at Durban Container Terminal Pier 2 ranging from about three days to more than a month depending on the service, yard occupancy at 56%, and waiting times of around one to more than two weeks at Pier 1, which is still recovering from a longer congestion episode, the forwarder reported. Equipment failures and a terminal system transition are named as causes. In week 43 the average vessel port call at Durban neared eight days; on 21 October average arrival delay was about six days and departure delay 5.8 days, according to seaexplorer data cited in the advisory. COSCO has split some calls so that discharge and loading happen on separate visits, and delays at Pier 1 led to a revised South African rotation for the ONE Resilience on Maersk’s SAECS service. Berth delays of this length feed directly into the on-time performance figures tracked in what schedule reliability measures.

Fleet & Capacity

Charter rates are running against the orderbook. Braemar recorded 853 fixtures between 1 January and 17 October, down 15% year on year, with capacity fixed down 10% at 2.54 million TEU, yet its charter index is at a four-year high. The consultancy’s explanation is a shortage of prompt tonnage, because owners locked vessels into long-term employment during 2024 and 2025. Charterers are therefore booking further forward: ships are now fixed an average 7.8 months before delivery against 6.8 months a year earlier, and more than 10 months ahead for vessels of 3,000 TEU and above. In the third quarter, half of fixtures were for ships delivering more than three months ahead, against 23% in the same period of 2025.

The segment detail shows where the pressure sits. Vessels of 1,500 to 1,900 TEU fixed for nine to 15 months are commanding a median US$28,625 a day, up 18% year on year, with recent 12 month fixtures reaching US$36,500 a day. In the 4,000 to 5,099 TEU segment, fixtures fell 39% while short period rates rose to a median US$58,000 a day from US$51,000. Ships aged 20 years or more accounted for 30% of fixtures this year, up from 26% in 2025. Maersk was the busiest charterer, increasing fixtures 14% and chartered capacity 20%, while CMA CGM, the leading charterer last year, cut fixtures 41%. Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach also flagged that 94 fixtures covering about 570,000 TEU since January 2025 are for newbuildings delivering in 2028, the largest delivery wave on record.

The dual-fuel fleet passed 500 ships. The World Shipping Council’s dashboard counts 503 dual-fuel container ships and vehicle carriers in service in September 2026, up 41% from 358 a year earlier, with a further 849 on order, the council’s dashboard shows. Dual-fuel ships account for 65% of container ship orders by deadweight and 97% of vehicle carrier orders, against 23% for the rest of the global fleet. The council said investment in dual-fuel vessels delivered and on order exceeds US$200 billion, Ship and Bunker reported, and noted that orders for conventional-fuelled ships have also risen over the past year amid uncertainty over greenhouse gas rules at the IMO.

Trade Routes

Most Far East to Europe capacity is now routed through the Red Sea. Alphaliner put 5.50 million TEU of the 8.70 million TEU deployed on the trade on services using the Red Sea between 15 September and 15 October, or 63%, Ship and Bunker reported. CMA CGM kept transiting throughout the crisis, and COSCO Shipping, OOCL, Maersk and MSC have also returned. The Premier Alliance partners are preparing to resume two services, leaving Evergreen and ZIM as the only two of the ten largest carriers yet to return. Alphaliner noted that the Suez route saves about two weeks of sailing against the Cape of Good Hope and cuts fuel burn, while security risks remain; it cited a Le Monde report that a naval frigate shot down a drone that threatened the 23,112 TEU CMA CGM Champs Elysees during a Red Sea transit.

Hambantota is positioning for the next phase of that return. Hambantota International Port Group said it will raise annual container handling capacity to two million TEU in the first quarter of 2027, after committing US$149 million to container handling equipment, and cited Linerlytica’s October 2026 outlook forecasting a full-scale return of container shipping to Suez in that same quarter, Lanka Business Online reported. The port group estimates that about 75% of East-West tonnage is currently routed around Africa. Its commercial case rests on transhipment, the transfer of boxes between vessels covered in what transshipment means in practice, plus bunkering and ship supplies, and it is also building a gateway cargo base for Sri Lankan importers and exporters. The Linerlytica forecast is the consultancy’s, not a confirmed schedule, and the pace of the return remains subject to security conditions and individual carrier decisions.

What It Means

The two price signals published this week describe the same fleet from different angles. Charter rates are high because diversion around the Cape keeps ships at sea for longer, absorbing tonnage, and because owners had already committed much of the prompt fleet. Spot rates are rising because carriers are withdrawing voyages on Asia-Europe, not because cargo volumes are accelerating: Sea-Intelligence’s reading of the IMF outlook has trade growth slowing into 2027.

That makes the Suez return the single most important variable in the market, and the most exposed price is the charter rate, not the spot rate. If Alphaliner’s 63% becomes a full restoration by the first quarter of 2027 as Linerlytica forecasts, round voyages shorten, effective capacity rises without a single new ship being delivered, and the prompt tonnage shortage that supports charter rates disappears. Braemar’s own analyst makes the point that charterers are queuing today and owners may be queuing by 2028, when the record orderbook delivers.

For shippers, the practical consequences run in opposite directions by time horizon. Over the next two quarters, blank sailings and Durban style terminal delays mean schedule risk stays high and contract rates have room to firm. From 2027, restored Suez routings and new tonnage argue for shorter contract tenors and index-linked mechanisms rather than long fixed commitments. Terminal economics are already feeling the squeeze: HHLA’s guidance cut came from strike losses and automation start-up costs at Hamburg, not from a collapse in demand, which is a cost problem that will be passed into terminal handling charges rather than absorbed.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

Asia-Europe rates are riding a half-finished Suez return

Sixty-three percent of Far East to Europe capacity now uses Red Sea routings, but many loops still return via the Cape. That gap explains the rate rebound.

The transpacific premium is mostly a capacity decision

Asia-US East Coast spot rates are more than three times Asia-North Europe. The gap reflects blanked capacity and Red Sea routing more than a demand boom.

Asia-Europe rates fall even as the container network stays tight

Asia-Europe spot rates fell for a twelfth week while intra-Asia set another record and mid-size tonnage ran scarce. The two readings measure different layers.

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